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Berger Study on Green Hydrogen: Transport as a Critical Factor

Transporters who shift early to green hydrogen could benefit in the long term, predicts a study by Roland Berger.

Green hydrogen is considered a key element in reducing CO2 emissions. (Photo: Thomas / AdobeStock)
Green hydrogen is considered a key element in reducing CO2 emissions. (Photo: Thomas / AdobeStock)
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von Therese Meitinger

Clean hydrogen is considered the energy carrier of the future and a key element for the energy transition. However, it has not yet been clarified how the transport of clean hydrogen from the sometimes remote production sites to the consumption points in industrial centers will be successful. Now, the consulting firm Roland Berger has addressed this question in the study "Hydrogen transportation: The key to unlocking the clean hydrogen economy." According to a press release dated November 4, the analysts are examining the potential of various transport solutions that will ultimately play a significant role in the success of the energy carrier. Although investments in clean hydrogen are increasing, says Uwe Weichenhain, partner at Roland Berger, everything so far has focused on production and end-user applications.

"To ensure that clean hydrogen becomes economically competitive and finds wide application, new and efficient transport solutions are urgently needed. This is because transport costs still make up a considerable part of the overall costs."

Demand for hydrogen will quadruple by 2050

Hydrogen can be used as a renewable fuel or feedstock in all sectors with high CO2 emissions – including industries where direct electrification is not possible. According to Roland Berger, total demand for hydrogen in Europe will therefore increase from just under ten million tons currently to more than 45 million tons by 2050, more than quadrupling. Accordingly, hydrogen imports and intra-European transport will increase significantly.

Currently, demand in Europe is still almost entirely met by local hydrogen production. By 2050, however, Roland Berger expects 40 percent of the volume to come from imports, 33 percent to be transported within the continent, and only 27 percent to be produced directly at the consumption site.

Transport will be profitable in the long term

The study examines the three carrier technologies: ammonia (NH3), liquefied hydrogen (LH2), and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) as well as their practical advantages and disadvantages. To compare the transportation costs of the different carriers, four typical transportation scenarios for hydrogen are outlined, ranging from large-scale port-to-port transports from the Near and Middle East to Europe to small truck transports of up to 200 kilometers. The model shows that by 2025, none of the three hydrogen carriers will have clear cost advantages across all different transportation scenarios. The decision must be made based on the specific application.

By 2035, however, Roland Berger's experts expect all three technologies to experience significant cost reductions. For example, the transportation costs for LH2 in a port-to-port transport over a distance of 12,000 kilometers with a volume for a large consumer like a steel producer will decrease from 2.8 euros per kilogram in 2025 to 1.7 euros per kilogram in 2035.

The results of the comparison would thus indicate that hydrogen transport will be economically viable in the future, according to Weichenhain.

"According to the hydrogen strategy announced by the European Union in 2020, a full-fledged hydrogen ecosystem is to be established from 2025 onwards. If this is implemented, the quantities of transported clean hydrogen will continue to increase significantly. We expect transportation volumes of over one million tons from the middle of the decade, initially due to intra-European transport and then increasingly from non-EU imports. From 2030 onwards, transported clean hydrogen will reach a price level that is competitive enough to enable industrial customers to decarbonize on a large scale - by replacing local production with transported clean hydrogen."

The transport of clean hydrogen thus opens up an attractive business field for energy, transport, and trading companies. Companies that act quickly and gain early experience, according to Roland Berger, can gain an advantage in the market by setting standards and realizing cost reductions.

Translated automatically from German.
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