Agora balance sheet on transport policy: One year of "racing standstill"

In an interim assessment of transport policy after twelve months, the Berlin-based think tank Agora Verkehrswende gave the traffic-light coalition a devastating report card. The blockade has not been resolved, the promises from the coalition agreement have not been fulfilled, and the measures do not meet the climate protection targets. Wiebke Zimmer, deputy director of the think tank, spoke of "twelve months of frenetic standstill" and a "lost year." There is no roadmap for the transformation and no transparency. Additionally, in e-mobility, the opportunity to accelerate the transformation, for example by adopting stricter CO2 values, has been missed. The structural imbalance due to outdated subsidies and privileges for car traffic largely remains untouched by the federal government.

"Yet, the coalition parties unite the core values needed for the transformation: climate protection, social justice, economic viability, and freedom. However, better late than never, the federal government should live up to the title of the coalition agreement – Dare More Progress – in the transport sector and shift from frenetic standstill to the promised progress," appealed Agora director Christian Hochfeld.

This is particularly disastrous in light of the planned "Inflation Reduction Act" in the USA, with Joe Biden's subsidy package for local manufacturers of climate-friendly technologies. As a result, Europe risks being left behind, at least slowed in development, and losing value creation, Hochfeld further warned. A concerted European response is needed here to avoid slowing down e-mobility in Europe. This would also create planning security for domestic manufacturers.

The Double Opportunity: Reduce Dependency, Protect the Climate

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the increased prices for energy, food, and other goods should motivate the federal government even more to advance climate protection in transport, Zimmer emphasized. Traffic transition not only means fewer greenhouse gas emissions but also less dependency on oil imports from crisis regions, hence better protection against price increases.

"The transportation transition will change everyday routines. But the vast majority of the population supports climate protection. If the federal government takes on its leadership role and advances with a coherent overall concept, it will be able to gain broad majorities for the necessary steps. A policy that waits, sporadically relies on subsidies, and otherwise hopes for imperfect market forces will fail. Postponed actions will inevitably be shelved," warned Zimmer.

The so-called immediate program of the Ministry of Transport only serves to close the gaps from the previous year, Zimmer further criticized. There is only a draft of a key points paper circulating, which, even according to the federal government's assessment, would not be nearly enough. Further measures are not expected until spring 2023. It is essential to significantly expand and improve the program. The key points still leave a massive gap of 118 to 175 million tons of CO2 by 2030. The transport sector must halve its emissions by then. According to Hochfeld's prognosis, the trend in the currently available figures suggests the deficit will increase rather than decrease, and the goal of reducing transport greenhouse gas emissions by about half by 2030 compared to 1990 is now further away than at the beginning of the legislative period. Hochfeld spoke of a "critical moment."

Without the Transport Sector, Germany Fails

This is also disastrous because Germany simply cannot achieve its climate targets without the transport sector. Hochfeld warned against even debating loosening sectoral targets, as there is no potential for overcompensation in the building or energy sector to make up for the transport sector. It is obvious that without Germany, the EU will also miss the goals of its Green New Deal. Globally, the results of the recent climate conference COP27 were also sobering.

A Reboot in Transport Policy Needed

Hochfeld appealed to the federal government to release the handbrake in all areas. A simple "restart" in transport policy is needed, which communicatively makes it clear that much needs to change. Push and pull measures, incentives, and rules are indispensable for this. He referred specifically to a reform of the Road Traffic Act, which shows no movement yet and still prioritizes the "ease" of motorized traffic. This must give municipalities prepared for change more leeway to environmentally-friendly designs of mobility with more cycling and pedestrian traffic, 30 km/h zones, or public transport expansion. In local transport, the loud debate around the welcome €49 ticket overshadows the need for significantly better long-term financing of public transport. This is only possible with the introduction of a causally fair car toll, which must provide the necessary funds.

Clear Statement: Transition Also Means Fewer Cars

From Hochfeld's perspective, what is needed is nothing less than a "transition offensive," as it is clear that climate-friendly transport can only be achieved by reducing car traffic. Giving the impression otherwise would be unrealistic and urgently necessary by 2030. By then, alternatives to private vehicles must be available, with more sharing, ride-pooling, public transport options, and cycling and walking paths. Beyond that, he demanded that alongside the necessary expansion of charging infrastructure for e-vehicles, attention must also be paid to making them more efficient. Smaller and lighter vehicles are needed instead of wasting resources from three cars for one heavy vehicle.

Flanking Measures with Fossil Subsidy Reduction and Car Toll

Flanking with fiscal instruments is indispensable, for example, fundamental reforms of national taxes and levies such as vehicle tax, company car taxation, energy tax on diesel fuels, as well as a mobility allowance instead of the distance allowance. Additionally, a CO₂ price in combination with a climate premium and, in the medium term, a causally fair road usage fee (car toll) for sustainable financing of transport infrastructure and mobility offerings. At all these points, the goal is to systematically cut harmful privileges and subsidies and ensure more climate protection and social balance. An overall concept also includes adequately and reliably funded support programs for climate-friendly modes of transport and a legal framework that enables municipalities to shape the traffic transition locally.

In public communication, it must be made clear that there are ways and means to make this transition socially fair, such as through a climate allowance for financially weaker households. It is wrong to convey the image that the transition will be expensive for everyone. That does not have to be the case if done correctly, Hochfeld was convinced.