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Agora analysis sees harbingers of the mobility transition: More cars, less traffic

Analysis shows changes in traffic volume since 2019: Over six percent fewer cars on the roads and increased performance of buses and trains. Desirable trends should be politically supported, argues the think tank. Agora: "Traffic growth is not a law of nature".

More cars, less passenger car traffic, more buses and trains: Agora sees the first signs of a traffic transition, which needs political support. | Photo: ADAC
More cars, less passenger car traffic, more buses and trains: Agora sees the first signs of a traffic transition, which needs political support. | Photo: ADAC
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Traffic patterns in Germany have unexpectedly changed during the years 2019 to 2023. This is confirmed by an analysis by the think tank Agora Verkehrswende. For example, in 2023, there were seven percent fewer cars on the highways compared to 2019. In major cities like Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich, traffic relief from cars is similar, and in some cases even more pronounced. While the number of passengers in public transport has mostly not yet returned to pre-COVID levels after sharp declines, overall public transport usage has increased, and long-distance train travel has risen by six percent as passengers are traveling longer distances.

“The traffic data challenges a widely held belief in transportation policy,” says Wiebke Zimmer, Deputy Director of Agora Verkehrswende. “Despite slightly increasing population numbers and a steadily growing number of cars, car traffic has decreased compared to 2019. Traffic growth is therefore not a natural law. It is all the more important to shape mobility and traffic politically and to set priorities for the benefit of the general public, taking into account climate and environmental protection, health and safety, social justice, and economic development.”

Important Influencing Factors: Home Office, Germany Ticket, CO2 Price

The analysis was conducted by Agora Verkehrswende based on a report by the consultancy firm KCW. For the report, data on traffic on highways and federal roads, public transportation, as well as car and bicycle traffic in selected cities, were evaluated. According to Agora Verkehrswende, the changes in traffic volume since the pandemic can be attributed primarily to three factors: the introduction of home office regulations in many companies, the introduction of the Germany ticket, and probably also the increase in CO2 pricing for fossil fuels.

“There are many political tools to accelerate desirable trends in traffic,” says Dr. Philine Gaffron, Project Manager for Urban Mobility at Agora Verkehrswende. “On the one hand, it is about expanding public transportation offerings and improving conditions for cycling and walking; on the other hand, it is about economically accounting for the costs of driving and dismantling the privileges of car traffic that have grown over decades. The federal government, states, and municipalities all share this responsibility. The recently adopted reform of traffic law has opened up new significant action opportunities for municipalities.”

Translated automatically from German.
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