16th Science Forum for Mobility in Duisburg: A Celebration of the Mobility Transition!
One would have to split oneself into five parts, as after the opening panel, the sessions were divided into five tracks with different focuses, led by various faculties, companies, and speakers. Unfortunately, we could only attend a few. For example, there was a discussion on the influence of the sales share of electric vehicles on the company valuation of car manufacturers in relation to revenue, EBITDA, and EBIT, presented by Paul Donnermeyer and Prof. Dr. Benjamin Jung from the University of Applied Sciences Osnabrück. They found that even small changes can have a significant impact, as shown by the comparison between the years 2021 and 2022.
Climate Goals Quo Vadis?
Martina Klein and Julia Braun from the University of Cottbus-Senftenberg asked: Climate goals quo vadis? They evaluated the climate and sustainability reports of European car manufacturers. The pressure to reduce CO2 levels has increased, and the so-called "scopes" have been developed further along the value chain. While Scope 1 and 2, which are directly related to production, can be optimized quickly and significantly, and much has already been done in this area, Scope 3 is more challenging: "Upstream" includes material delivery and logistics, while "downstream" covers the use of vehicles until the end of their life. After evaluating even the smallest companies like McLaren or Morgan, it is not surprising that 14 out of 32 car manufacturers have not yet communicated any climate goals. Interestingly, large publicly listed manufacturers are required to report here, while there are significant differences among smaller companies: some are already performing very well, while others have not yet announced any timeline for CO2 reduction or even neutral production. It is interesting to see what manufacturers reduce through reduction itself and what they compensate with certificates. Klein and Braun also found the fine print interesting, which often includes notable footnotes, as well as the fact that manufacturers frequently adjust their goals, which changes data modulation.
The Panel on China Was Fully Booked
We then switched to track 4, the competition with Chinese providers. Philipp Wibbing and Steffen Menzefricke for Unity asked how much innovation we can still achieve. It often happens that patents are re-filed in China and then compete with European ones. Nonetheless, Unity remains optimistic: similar threats were once seen from Japan and were partly countered with counter-innovations. Wibbing notes, "There is currently a lot going on in the boardrooms of the German auto industry." Additionally, phasing out the e-models at VW and Mercedes-Benz was not a good idea, neither the IDs nor the EQs were accepted in China. This is devastating as combustion engines are generally considered obsolete in China.
Prof. Dr. Anja Senz, a sinologist at the University of Heidelberg, explains why this is the case. She states that the electric car must be viewed strategically, economically, and security-wise for China. It signifies an ascent to the middle class for many, which is why car sharing is not popular in China. The strategic importance for the state also includes demonstrating its own innovative strength, reducing pollutants in the transport sector, and decreasing dependence on oil imports from the South China Sea and Russia. China cannot meet its oil needs on its own. Additionally, they want to transition from "made in China" to "designed in China" to high-tech goods. An interesting quote that Senz found reflects this development: "It mirrors the systemic and institutional successes and the superiority of China."
Interestingly, in China, due to companies' profit motives, there is also a reference to a "deformed industrial development" which practically reverses the market economy. The fact that plans occasionally go completely off track in China is demonstrated by huge car, moped, and bicycle graveyards in various cities, primarily hosting shared vehicles, with images from Hangzhou taken by Bloomberg in 2023. When asked, manufacturers indicated that the cars were being collected for auctions or moved to other cities. Either way, they are a significant waste of resources.
The car is still a privilege for many, yet there is little brand loyalty. The car represents family ties in the middle class who want to transport their family well and are willing to pay for it: in addition to the acquisition cost, there are the costs of the license plate lottery (many cities now have too many cars), insurance, and parking – all of which are expensive! Thus, social aspects determine the purchase decision; high taxes on combustion engines also play a role. As mentioned, it is less about the brand, and more about given subsidies and some intelligent functions. It also involves dignity, as the electric car is often sold in China as the "green dream of all humanity," and there is also a national pride appeal, such as BYD with models from the Qin Dynasty.
Nonetheless, not everything that glitters is gold in China, and the country is currently in economically challenging waters, which is not openly discussed due to the lack of free discourse. However, there is a definitely a latent frustration about resource wastage and the construction of the "Silk Road" abroad, as there is still much need for better transport routes within the country. It is also interesting that mismanagement at local administrations weighs in more heavily, with the frustration being more locally targeted than at Beijing.
The conclusion was made by Chen Xu and Dennis Chen. Xu has been living in Germany for 24 years, holds German citizenship, and works for P3 Automotive GmbH. He was recently in Wuhan and brought back a film of an Arcfox taxi that drove completely autonomously to its destination! The driver "digitally" communicated with him. Interesting: When you ask Chinese manufacturers about their motives, they by no means want to "conquer the world," but rather to forge partnerships and, of course, make good deals. According to Xu, the problem is that such industrial efforts are often readily reinterpreted politically.
Electromobility is indeed advancing, but it is also viewed somewhat critically: Tesla's sales in the first quarter of 2024 fell by 8.5%, Mercedes-Benz postponed its electrification goals from 2025 to 2030, and few measures are generally being taken toward electrification in Japan. Nevertheless, the government remains open: Tesla now officially meets the new Chinese safety conditions for driver assistance, conditions that many Chinese OEMs have not yet met. Elon Musk was very well received in China. Honda, Nissan, and Toyota are also entering into new partnerships in China. A dedicated BMW driver was surprised by Nio: He was impressed by their knowledge and the potential entertainment value for his eight-year-old daughter. The EL8's stoic suspension with champagne glasses on the hood also demonstrates competence.
Fact: China leads in batteries and chips
And what is also clear: China is now ahead of Europe and the USA in chips and batteries. Low R&D costs help: Many engineers at universities work for very low salaries, which brings cost advantages. And the market is growing: In 2023, 8.1 million cars were registered in China and 1.2 million were exported. Big numbers.
Grand finale with a positive outlook for the mobility transition
The grand finale was then moderated by the author of these lines. He once again met Anja Senz, who represented Track Four, the new competition with IT and Asia. Track Five—addressing and incentivizing (potential) customers—was represented by Prof. Dr. Johannes Weyer from TU Dortmund. Track One—new players in mobility management—was represented by Prof. Dr. Michael Stephan, and for the more technical Track Two—new players in mobility engineering—Prof. Dr.-Ing. Benedikt Schmülling stood in. Track Three, cities and their inhabitants—how they influence mobility—was represented by Prof. Dr. Kai Nagel from Berlin. As diverse as the faculties of the professors were, so too was their origin from all over Germany. And despite sometimes differing opinions, there was agreement in the end: Individual mobility in the form of cars won't disappear quickly, but mobility will evolve dramatically because it must! And it doesn't always have to happen linearly: Especially in academic research, one can sometimes arrive at completely unexpected results. The flying car with nuclear propulsion never came, but decades ago, no one expected the smartphone. What we especially liked: the always friendly tone and everyone's enthusiasm for new things!
What does this mean?
The Engineering Sciences Forum at the University of Duisburg-Essen is one of the most underrated symposia of its kind! It should actually be a mandatory program in the mobility industry—and we are already looking forward to the next edition in 2025!
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